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Dortmund v Shakhtar Betting Preview 05/03/2013

Football05/03/2013
  • March 03, 2013
  • Mark Stefanyszyn

Dortmund v Shakhtar Betting

Ukrainian football giants Shakhtar travel to Dortmund for the second leg of the last 16 knock-out stages of this year's EUFA Champions League. Dortmund will be the happier of the two teams going into the match after the 2-2 draw in Ukraine a fortnight ago.

As you can see from the picture, Dortmund fans can build a fantastic atmosphere and get the players going at home. Especially in the Champions League they really get behind the team and intimidate the away players.

Dortmund are strong favourites to progress to the next round after their 2-2 draw at Shakhtar in the first leg. The draw and the two crucial away goals put Dortmund in a very strong position going into the match on Wednesday. The last result means it may be a difficult game to call and will depend on the mentality and tactics adopted by both sides, which is a tricky one. Shakhtar know that they need to go to Germany and score a goal, but, they will be wary of attacking and going gung-ho from the off as if they concede, it will mean that they will need to score at least two to tie the match and three to progress, which at the home of the German champions is not easy. In the group stages the champions of Spain, England and Holland (Real Madrid, Man City and Ajax) were only able to score one goal between them as they feel to 2-1, 1-0 and 1-0 defeats respectively. But having said this, the Ukrainian champions were scoring for fun away from home in the group stages and managed 8 goals in just three games, against tricky opponents in Juventus, Chelsea and Nordsjaelland too.

So, as you can see, this is going to be a tricky game to call as stats don't suggest one team over the other in recent European matches. Further to this, the domestic stats do not offer any clues either; Dortmund have won 9 out of their last 14 home league matches, whilst Shakhtar have been on a fantastic away run and won 18 out of their last 19 away league matches. Admittedly, the Ukrainian Premier Division is not as strong as the German Bundesliga, but that is a very strong away record and would give any teams confidence when travelling to play.

The Form

Dortmund: WLDWD Home: WWLWW Champions League: DWWDW

Shakhtar: WLWWD Away: LWWWL Champions League: DLWLW

Dortmund

Dortmund have taken the Champions League by storm this year and are being strongly tipped as the dark horses who could go on and win the competition. This has come as a surprise to many people, but should it have done? Dortmund have been really impressive domestically in the last few years and were rewarded by winning the Bundesliga and the domestic cup competition last season. Their fantastic flowing football and array of talent has got the footballing world talking and praising the young German team. Most of the Dortmund team has been fantastic this season, but Reus, Gotze, Blaszczykowski and Hummels have stood out amongst the rest. Unsurprisingly, these four players have been prominent in the success in Europe, with the first three creating chances and scoring goals and the latter, Hummels, providing defensive stability at the back, which has proved key.

In terms of who is going to create chances and score goals, well, most of the team? The goals have been spread around the team this season with four players getting the bulk of them; Strikers Lewondowski and Reus have 14 and 11 respectively, whilst midfielders Gotze and Blaszczykowski have 8 and 9. Unsurprisingly, these four players are also the more prominent in the betting for goal-scorers with odds ranging from 10/11 to 2/1 to score anytime. The German talisman, Gotze, may offer the best value in the market at odds of 6/4 to score anytime and 11/2 to score first in the match. The midfielder has been pivotal to the success of the team this season and with goals already in this year's Champions League he looks good value to striker again.

Shakhtar

In recent seasons Shakhtar have been in fantastic form, especially away from home. The Ukrainian giants have been seemingly winning games and scoring goals for fun away from home this season. This fine away domestic form has extended to the Champions League too where they have played well at Chelsea, Juventus and Nordsjaelland. They have scored at least one goal in each of these away games and have showed signs of being a dark horse at winning this prestigious competition.

Shakhtar have relied heavily on their midfielders to score the goals for them this season. Mkhitaryan (18), Teixeira (8) and Ilsinho (5) have 31 goals between them this season, whilst all four of the strikers have only managed 9. The 24 year old Armenian midfielder, Mkhitaryan, has been the most prolific with 18 goals in the opening 17 league matches. This has been his highest goal-scoring season to date and he now offers the most threat since the departure of Willian to Russian side, Anzi, last month. Willan will be a big miss for Shakhtar in the European matches; the midfielder was a great player for the Ukrainian's and provided a real threat going forward, having scored four goals in the group stages and created and set-up a lot of goals.

Which one of these two European giants will progress?

Odds:

  • Result after 90 minutes: Dortmund 8/13, Draw 13/5, Shakhtar 10/3

Dortmund have been extremely impressive over the last couple of seasons and especially in the EUFA Champions League with victories against the Spanish, English and Dutch champions. But, for a team that does not need to win (although playing for the draw is risky and unrealistic) a shade of odds on at 8/13 may be worth avoiding.

Dortmund have won 1-0 in two out of their three home Champions League matches this season and the tight victory looks good value again. This match may turn out to be a low-scoring game as neither team will want to risk conceding an early goal and making tough work of their task for the rest of the game. Shakhtar may be relatively happy to try and contain Dortmund for the majority of the match and then try and win in a 'smash and grab' way. If this happens, which looks likely, then the first half could turn into a possession game with Dortmund having the majority of the ball but not going gung-ho and risking losing their advantage in the tie. Because of this under 2.5 goals looks a good bet at 6/5, but may come unstuck in the second half as the game may open up when the deadlock is broken. Therefore, backing the 0-0 at HT will offer a little more security and at better value of 9/4 to.

BEST BET: 0-0 HT score @ 9/4 VALUE BET: Dortmund to win 1-0 @ 15/2

CRAZY BET: Lewandowski to score first and Dortmund to win 1-0 @ 20/1 with William Hill